Brevia Consulting is providing a weekly round-up and analysis of the UK headlines. This week, read about the latest from the Conservative Party leadership contest, the publication of the Forde report on factionalism in the Labour Party, and the announcement of the UK’s consumer price inflation for June 2022.
SUNAK AND TRUSS TO FACE MEMBERS IN VOTE FOR TORY LEADER
After a series of votes by MPs this week, the field of candidates for next Conservative Party leader has been whittled down to the final two: former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Tom Tugendhat was eliminated on Monday, Kemi Badenoch on Tuesday, and Penny Mordaunt on Wednesday, leaving two final candidates. The 160,000 Conservative Party members will now vote on the two candidates, and the winner is expected to become Prime Minister on 6 September. The dividing line in the contest so far is the economy, with Sunak arguing for continued fiscal restraint,[1] and Truss promising tax cuts worth £30 billion if she is elected.[2] Truss currently has a 19 point lead over Sunak in polling of members,[3] and is the favourite in betting markets.[4] But with twelve hustings and further televised debates planned over the coming weeks, the final outcome is far from certain.
FORDE REPORT REVEALS A TOXIC LABOUR PARTY
Earlier this week, the Forde Inquiry Panel published its long-awaited report on the alleged bullying, racism and factionalism within the Labour Party from 2015-2019, concluding that both opponents and supporters of Jeremy Corbyn treated the issue of antisemitism in the Party as a “factional weapon”.[5] The report highlights the extent of Labour’s factionalism, revealing that during the 2017 General Election, anti-Corbyn officials diverted campaign resources to the value of £135,000 away from pro-Corbyn candidates contesting winnable seats.[6] The report also describes the discriminatory culture of the Party’s senior management team over Whatsapp, concluding that leadership “created a working environment totally at odds with the values the Party stands for.”[7] Keir Starmer is yet to comment on the findings of the report.
UK INFLATION REACHES A NEW 40 YEAR HIGH
On Wednesday, The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that UK consumer price inflation (CPI) for June 2022 was 9.4 per cent. Up from 9.1 per cent in May. May 2022’s CPI had been the highest since 1982 before June 2022’s figures were published.[8] The ONS’ figures underline the upward direction of prices facing British households. This will keep the cost of living at the forefront of UK political debate. With inflation unlikely to come down in the near term, we can expect arguments over who is better placed to support Britain’s hardworking people to remain a crucial battleground. Both in the Conservative Party’s current leadership contest, as well as the contest between the Conservatives and Labour that will follow.
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Notes
[1] BBC News, ‘Conservative Party leadership: I’d tackle inflation before cutting tax, says Sunak’, 17 July 2022, Link
[2] Financial Times, ‘Liz Truss promises tax cuts worth £30bn in bid to win over Tory rightwingers’, 15 July 2022, Link
[3] YouGov, ‘Truss, Mordaunt, and Badenoch all in a virtual tie for next leader among Conservative members’, 19 July 2022, Link
[4] Oddschecker, ‘British Politics – Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds’, Link
[5] Martin Forde, ‘The Forde Report’, 19 July 2022, p.7, Link
[6] The Independent, ‘Anti-Corbyn Labour officials covertly diverted election funds away from winnable seats, Forde report finds’, 19 July 2022, Link
[7] Martin Forde, ‘The Forde Report’, 19 July 2022, p.103, Link
[8] ONS, ‘Consumer price inflation, UK: June 2022’, 20 July 2022, Link
