Brevia Consulting is providing a weekly round-up and analysis of the UK headlines. This week, read about Cornwall Insight’s latest predictions on the retail energy price cap, the Scottish Government’s legal case to hold another independence referendum on 19 October 2023, and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s recent intervention on the energy crisis.
RISING ENERGY PRICES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE DEBATE
On 9 August 2022, Cornwall Insight published research predicting that the retail energy price cap for the average household will rise to £4,266 from January 2023.[1] This is a significant uplift on estimates it had published only a week prior, which had suggested the average household bill would hit £3,615 in Q1 of 2023.[2] Cornwall Insight attributed the revision to a change in the methodology calculation by the energy industry regulator, Ofgem. The news prompted the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi MP, and Business Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng MP, to seek crisis talks with the energy industry.[3] The inability of the current caretaker government to ignore the issue highlights the challenge awaiting whoever succeeds Boris Johnson MP as Prime Minister in September.
UK GOV SUBMITS INDYREF2 LEGAL CASE TO SUPREME COURT
The Scottish Government has renewed its attempt for an independence referendum, publishing its case for a poll on 19 October 2023.[4] Last month, Scotland’s top law officer referred a prospective referendum Bill to the Supreme Court to clarify if it was within the powers of the Scottish Parliament.[5] The UK Government has now made its written submission to the Court and its view is clear: ‘A Bill legislating for a referendum on independence would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament’.[6] The Scottish Government is arguing that any vote would be ‘advisory’ but UK officers contend that the legal effects of the Draft Bill would not be ‘relevantly, nil’ as the SNP would undoubtably use the result to advance its cause, were the outcome to favour independence. Judges will hear arguments on 11 and 12 October 2022.
GORDON BROWN CALLS FOR EMERGENCY BUDGET
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown made a rare intervention into political debate in last Sunday’s Observer, calling for further measures to address rising energy prices. Brown said that the Prime Minister and both leadership candidates should ‘agree on an emergency budget’ and that Parliament should be recalled if they fail to do so.[7] In a further intervention in The Guardian, Brown called for the planned rise in the energy price cap to be cancelled, the windfall tax on energy companies to be increased and for any energy company that fails to work with the Government to keep costs down to be nationalised.[8] Brown’s comments will put pressure on the Conservatives to announce further measures, but also on Keir Starmer to announce his own plans to address energy prices. Labour sources have said Starmer will announce further policies next week.[9]
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Notes
[1] Cornwall Insight, ‘Price cap forecasts for January rise to over £4,200 as wholesale prices surge again and Ofgem revises cap methodology’, 9 August 2022, Link
[2] Cornwall Insight, ‘Price cap to remain significantly above £3,000 a year until at least 2024’, 2 August 2022, Link
[3] Evening Standard, ‘Chancellor to hold crisis talks with gas and electricity bosses’, 10 August 2022, Link
[4] Scottish Government, ‘Next steps in independence referendum set out, 28 June’, 2022, Link
[5] Scottish Government, ‘Lord Advocate’s Written Case: whether the question for a referendum on Scottish Independence contained in the proposed referendum Bill relates to reserved matters’, 22 July 2022, Link
[6] Office of the Advocate General for Scotland, ‘Written Case on behalf of Her Majesty’s Advocate General for Scotland UKSC 2022/0098’, 10 August 2022, Link
[7] The Guardian, ‘Gordon Brown says energy firms unable to offer lower bills should be temporarily re-nationalized’, 6 August 2022, Link
[8] The Guardian, ‘We must tax profits now, freeze energy prices – and if necessary bring suppliers into the public sector’, 10 August 2022, Link
[9] PoliticsHome, ‘Labour Is Finally Preparing To Unveil Cost-Of-Living Policy Proposals As Energy Crisis Escalates’, 10 August 2022, Link
