The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recently published its Seventh Carbon Budget, outlining the UK’s strategic framework for achieving significant emissions reductions over the coming decades. A key takeaway is the downgrading of the CCC’s view on hydrogen for home compared with the Sixth Carbon Budget published in 2020. In this article, Brevia reviews the CCC’s positioning on heat in the Seventh Carbon Budget compared to the Sixth Carbon Budget.
Hydrogen
While the Government has signalled that heat pumps will be the primary technology for decarbonising heat, a final decision on hydrogen’s role is expected in 2026. However, the latest CCC assessment suggests that hydrogen will have only limited applications in the UK’s energy mix.
The CCC now sees hydrogen playing a niche role in hard-to-electrify industrial sectors, such as ceramics and chemical production, and as a dispatchable power source in electricity generation. However, it asserts that hydrogen has “no role” in home heating and only a marginal role in surface transport.
This marks a significant downgrade from the Sixth Carbon Budget, which had envisaged hydrogen trials on the gas grid in the 2020s and potential regional conversions from 2030. At that time, hydrogen blending in boilers, hybrid heat pumps, and heat networks was also under consideration. Hydrogen was expected to become more cost-effective by 2050 and was closely linked with Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) as a decarbonisation tool, particularly for the oil and gas industry.
The CCC’s latest conclusions reflect a change in view on the role in hydrogen, signalling potential concerns over hydrogen’s cost and practically for widespread heating use.
The Role of Heat Pumps and Heat Networks
Heat pumps
Heat pumps are expected to become the dominant form of home heating, and play a major role in non-domestic buildings as well. The CCC has urged rapid expansion of supply chains and workforce capacity, highlighting that the UK lags behind comparable nations. It projects that 52% of UK homes will use heat pumps by 2040, up from just 1% in 2023. The CCs modelling suggests that by 2040, 52 per cent of UK homes will be heated using a heat pump, compared to around 1 per cent in 2023.
Heat networks
The outlook for heat networks has also shifted, with the CCC now seeing a slightly diminished role for heat networks compared with the Sixth Carbon Budget. While the Sixth Carbon Budget projected heat networks accounting for 19% of home heating by 2030, the Seventh reduces this to 9% by 2040. The CCC emphasises that heat networks are best suited for dense urban areas with large non-residential buildings. The latest Budget also omits details on non-domestic heat networks that were present in the previous budget.
Conclusion
The CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget supports the deployment of heat pumps as the primary decarbonised heating solution, with hydrogen’s role in home heating now appearing significantly reduced. Hydrogen’s potential has been reassessed, scaled back and confined to industry and transport. While heat networks have also seen a reduction in projected uptake, they remain important for urban areas and industrial applications.
As the Government refines its long-term vision for heat decarbonisation, companies operating in this sector should seek timely engagement to ensure their views are taken into consideration.
Brevia Energy is a dedicated division of Brevia Consulting, and has a longstanding reputation for its expertise and experience in the Energy Sector.
Discover how Brevia Energy can help you and your organisation by visiting: www.brevia.co.uk/sectors/energy/. You can also contact the Brevia Energy Team on 020 7091 1650 or email contact@brevia.co.uk.
